UK Net Migration Falls by 20% – Here’s What It Means

The ONS has released its latest estimates of long-term international migration to the UK, ending June 2024. We’ve unpacked the key trends in the data and what they might mean for your workforce strategy.

Alex Schulte | 28 November 2024

The Headline Numbers

• Long-term net migration hit 728,000 in the year ending June 2024
• This is a 20% reduction from the previous year, after numbers for the year ending June 2023 were revised upwards to 906,000
• The decline is largely due to a fall in numbers of dependents on study visas from outside the EU and a pick-up in emigration of international students reaching the end of their courses

A Closer Look at the Data

• 241,000 visas were granted to work applicants and 211,000 to their dependents
• The most common non-EU nationality for work and study was Indian, followed by Nigerian, Pakistani, Chinese and Zimbabwean
• The number of health and care visas fell to under 20,000 in Q3 2024, from a peak of 100,000 in Q3 2023
• Net figures for non-EU work-related migration in the year to June 2024 stand at 157,000 for main applicants (down from 169,000 the year before) and 219,000 for their dependents (up from 155,000 the year before)
• 295,000 visas were granted to non-EU students and 80,000 to their dependants. When adjusted for departures, this produces a net figure of 199,000 new non-EU students and 63,000 new student dependants

The Long-Term Trend

• Migration to the UK has boomed in recent years – even after this year’s fall, net migration levels are still running almost triple their pre-Brexit level
• The lion’s share of migration has shifted from EU nationals to non-EU nationals. In 2016, net EU migration reached a peak of 322,000, with net non-EU migration at just 82,000. The most recent figures show net EU migration reaching -95,000, while net non-EU migration stands at 845,000
• Humanitarian visas are falling: The number of humanitarian visas granted surged in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it is now falling, although it still remains above its pre-invasion trend.

The Impact of Policy Changes

The previous Conservative government instituted a range of changes before leaving office to bring down net migration. These are visible to some degree in the numbers released today.

• Restrictions on international students’ dependants: Since the start of the year, most international students have been prohibited from bringing family members to the UK. This is reflected in the fall in net study dependants from 107,000 in YE June 2023 to the new figure of 63,000.
• Restrictions on care workers’ dependants: Effective from 11 March 2024, foreign care workers and senior care workers were no longer permitted to bring dependants to the UK. This has produced a slight drop in the number of net work dependants registered in the year ending March 2024, from 235,000 to 219,000, but the latest figure remains significantly higher than that recorded in the year ending June 2023 (155,000)
• Increased salary thresholds for work visas: In April 2024, the government raised the minimum salary requirements for work visa applicants. This may be reflected in the 30,000 drop in net numbers on the figure for the year ending March 2024.

Many of these policy changes came too late to significantly affect the most recent dataset. However, they are expected to accelerate the incipient downward trend in net migration in a way that will be more apparent in next year’s figures.

What This Means for Global Mobility Teams

Today’s figures reveal several important new realities that UK-focused Global Mobility and workforce management teams must take into account.

• Sustained high levels of skilled migration: Despite the 20% overall drop, work-related migration remains strong with 241,000 visas granted to main applicants. There is still significant interest overseas in coming to the UK, and continued opportunities for international recruitment.
• Net migration is set to drop further: Looking ahead, we expect to see levels of net migration reach around 400,000 in the next year or two. While still well above the pre-Brexit trend, this would suggest a tighter labour market for employers, with restricted access to overseas labour.
• Shifting source countries: With India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China, and Zimbabwe as top source countries, teams may need to adapt their mobility support services to cater to these demographics.
• Healthcare sector changes: The dramatic fall in health and care visas from 100,000 to under 20,000 suggests increased competition for healthcare talent and a major shift in the recruitment landscape
• Rising student emigration: The numbers show that, instead of staying in the UK for the two years allowed by the Graduate Route, many students are returning home once they’ve finished their courses. This may make it tougher to recruit new graduates from overseas.

Centuro Global specialises in helping teams adapt to volatility in the labour market. You can read more about our suite of tech-enabled strategy and compliance services and book a consultation here.

Content Marketing Manager

Alex Schulte

Alex focuses on insights for global mobility, using his 8+ years of analysis experience to help educate the market with clear, practical content.

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