What Trump’s Victory Means For Global People Strategies

This is what Trump’s second term could hold for People Ops, HR and Global Mobility teams 

Zain Ali | 7 November 2024

So it’s settled. Donald Trump has, once again, been elected President of the United States of America.

Trump’s re-ascent to the Oval Office is a watershed moment, heralding a revolution in America’s attitude to the world. The Republican embrace of tariff-raising protectionism will ripple through the global economy, reshaping supply chains and creating unpredictable new incentives. 

The Global Mobility sector will now have to reckon with a hardline immigration sceptic’s return to the helm of the world’s largest economy. While a gulf may emerge between Trump’s campaign rhetoric and his actions in office, the information we have at present should change the calculus of your company’s people strategy. 

Here’s how you should start recalibrating each part of your workforce strategy. 

Operational Strategy

Companies ought to take America First seriously as a statement of intent. Four years out of office have not softened the President-elect’s stance on globalisation one bit. His protectionist agenda seeks to ‘take other countries’ jobs’ and bring them onto American soil. Right now, the world’s boardrooms will be unpicking what this really means for them.  

• Reshoring – Trump is an avid proponent of returning manufacturing jobs to the US. His promised tariff programme could change the current incentive structure and make outsourcing much less attractive. This may compel companies to set up factories and plants in the USA and staff them with American workers. 
• Skill prioritisation – A second-order effect of reshoring might be accelerated investments in automation, as companies seek to make up for the higher costs of domestic recruitment. This would decrease the need for low-skilled labour while pushing up the bargaining power of high-skilled workers with the knowledge to program, manage and maintain complex systems. 

Global supply chains may become significantly less complex – and more USA-centric – over the next four years. People Ops managers should prepare to make their domestic-focused processes as smooth as possible. 

Talent Acquisition 

It’s no secret that Donald J. Trump is not an immigration liberal. His headline policy in the election campaign was the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants. But companies who make legitimate use of the immigration system should anticipate changes too. 

Trump has long advocated a merit-based immigration system that prioritises skilled workers over family-based immigration, in a bid to bring net numbers down. Exact details are still thin on the ground, but here’s what we might expect: 

• H-1B visa restrictions – The H1-B visa is the US’s most important route for skilled labour. It allows employers to hire overseas degree-holders on a three-to-six-year, renewable visa. In 2020, Trump tried to hike up minimum salary thresholds for H-1B holders without giving employers advance notice. The move was blocked in federal court, but may feasibly be exhumed in his second term. At present, only 85,000 new visas can be issued per year; a number Trump may seek to reduce.
• Optional Practical Training (OPT) restrictions – Currently, international students can apply to stay in the US for an extra year after their studies to undertake practical training. Towards the end of his previous term, Trump discussed suspending this program, 
• Green cards for graduates? – In May of this year, Trump deviated from this hawkish line and surprisingly proposed that foreign students graduating from US universities should automatically be given a green card. 

The exact contours of Republican policy on legal migration remain unclear. Reading the tea leaves, employers should plan for extra barriers to international talent acquisition, likely intensifying present shortages of skilled labour and raising compensation costs. Yet there’s a potential sweetener in the works in Trump’s green card proposal for overseas graduates.

These concerns may turn out moot. If the reshoring agenda succeeds, companies will feel less of a need for overseas labour in the first place. How the President-elect solves the contradiction of a protectionist pitch that increases the premium on skilled labour while decreasing firms’ access to it, only time will tell. 

Learning and Development 

The big test of America First 2.0 is whether the USA, after decades of globalisation, has the infrastructure to support mass reindustrialisation. This includes a labour pool of human capital with the skills to accommodate advanced manufacturing at scale. Current evidence suggests this is not yet the case. 

Back in Trump’s first term, manufacturing CEOs pressed the case to the President that America’s yawning skills gap would undermine his programme if not addressed. Seven years later, the same issue remains. Here’s what that will mean for businesses. 

• Mass reskilling – If America is to claw back its manufacturing primacy in critical areas like semiconductor fabrication, it will need to upskill its workers at an unprecedented scale. The previous Trump administration grasped the urgency of this task, setting up the Creators Wanted Fund to drive employment in modern manufacturing. Companies should expect to invest in STEM training programs. 
• Tax incentives – In this year’s election campaign, Trump promised tax breaks and extra funding for companies prioritising upskilling. 
• Apprenticeships – In 2017, Trump signed an executive order aimed at expanding apprenticeships by reducing federal oversight and empowering private-sector entities—such as businesses, trade groups, and labour unions—to create and manage their own apprenticeship programs. The order also doubled funding for apprenticeship grants from $90 million to nearly $200 million annually. 

Joe Biden’s government ensured continuity with these initiatives, expanding Registered Apprenticeships Programs and introducing Workforce Hubs. Under this new administration, we predict that companies with a US presence may face more of a carrot-and-stick approach. There will be significant inducements for companies to keep investing in upskilling the domestic workforce, while those that don’t will be increasingly disfavoured. 

Compliance

Trump’s promise to deport up to 20 million undocumented migrants could pose broad challenges to the American economy. An astonishing 50% of the US agricultural workforce fall into this category. The hospitality sector also relies heavily on illegal immigrants to run kitchens, clean dishes and clean hotel rooms. Removing this chunk of the labour force at the stroke of a pen will not be a pain-free task. 

Workforce structures in large firms are notoriously opaque. Many executives will be unaware of the legal status of employees further down the chain. But Trump’s advocacy of punitive fines for companies who employ undocumented migrants, and even criminal charges for their hiring managers and executives, make immediate action urgent. Here’s what to anticipate and how to get ready: 

• Internal audits – Companies should conduct internal audits of Form I-9 records to ensure all employee documentation is up to date 
• Mandatory E-Verify – The web-based E-Verify system allows employees to confirm that all employees are eligible to work in the USA. Businesses should enrol as soon as possible. 
• Workplace inspections – US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are likely to be knocking on more doors over the next four years. Companies should train their staff on the ground to respond to ICE visits appropriately.  
• Monitor third-party staffing agencies – Many larger companies use third-party agencies to source staff for lower-paid positions. Conducting due diligence on your partners could help stave off some deep legal trouble. 

The Trump restoration will create a hostile environment for undocumented migrants and those who employ them. It’s incumbent on companies not to get caught out.  

Relocation 

As the Red Wave crystallised in the election results over Tuesday evening, Google searches for ‘moving to Canada’ spiked.   

Whether this plays out in a great northward migration of liberal America remains to be seen. But we can sketch out some potential countervailing dynamics that may create more demand for relocation companies. 

• International outbound relocations – There are those for whom a second Trump term is simply too much to bear. These people may decide the time has come to up and leave. Relocation companies and internal Global Mobility departments may see an uptick in demand for employee requests to move to Canada or Europe. 
• International inbound relocations – If Trump’s reshoring agenda works out, those same departments may see a wave of interest in high-income workers and managers relocating to the USA to run factories and operate automation systems.  
• Internal relocations –  America First doesn’t mean America Everywhere At Once. Agglomeration effects will mean the reindustrialisation push is felt more heavily in some regions than others. Just as the US’s reigning tech sector is clustered in the Bay Area and Life Sciences in New England, the ‘Rust Belt’ states will likely benefit the most from an American manufacturing renaissance. If this all goes to plan, Global Mobility and relocation professionals should prepare to facilitate a burst of requests to move to places like Ohio and western Pennsylvania.  

Trump could redraw the economic geography of the United States. Those in the moving business should start planning accordingly. 

Navigating the Next Four Years

During the previous Trump administration, the USA withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, found itself mired in investigations into Russian interference, jettisoned the Paris climate accord and, in the end, floundered through an unforeseeable global pandemic. Nobody should make any confident predictions for what the next four years will hold. 

Trump’s victory has injected a dose of volatility into the global system. But companies can start planning for what we can see at the outset. 

At Centuro Global, we specialise in helping businesses adapt to change. Our HR and Global Mobility specialists are here to consult on how Trump’s promises will change your bottom line. With decades of experience in immigration law and compliance strategy, we are ready to guide you through the turbulence towards the opportunities this new era may create. 

Get in touch to arrange an advisory call.