Will STEM Skill Shortages Break the Aviation Industry?
Airlines are suffering the effects of chronic skills shortages, and the problem is only set to worsen. So how can the industry rebuild its talent pipeline?
Alistair Hancock | 16 October 2024
There are too many planes and not enough hangers; too many passengers and not enough people to fly them.
Every pilot says the same.
The aviation industry is rocked by shortages in critical infrastructure. But even more seriously, it’s running out of STEM-skill workers on whose shoulders rests the fate of the industry.
The USA alone is short of some 24,000 aviation workers. And those numbers are only set to increase.
Increased demand
Demand has never been higher for air travel. 2.7 billion people are expected to fly in 2025, according to the Airports Council International.
Air freight already accounts for 35% of world trade by value .This share is projected to rise to 5% by 2027 as e-commerce keeps growing and maritime shipping continues to suffer disruptions.
Air freight is growing in lockstep with the forward march of technology. The greater the value of a product, the more likely it is to be shipped by air freight, be it radiopharmaceuticals or next-generation AI chips.
Fleets of new planes must be built to meet that growing demand. In a recent study, Airbus projected that 42,000 new aeroplanes will have to be built over the next 20 years. A similar study by Oliver Wyman suggested the world’s commercial fleet will grow at a rate of 24% by 2034.
These staggering predictions should be a wake-up call for global governments. If Boeing is right—that 2.3 million new aircraft personnel will be needed in the next 20 years—we’re in trouble.
Because if the aviation industry is short of 24,000 workers in the US alone, the question is, why?
Decreased supply
It’d be too easy to blame the effects of global lockdown, which was responsible for the loss of some 2.3 million jobs.
Demand for air travel had declined rapidly, so airlines issued hiring freezes, mass lay-offs, and encouraged some workers to retire early.
They didn’t foresee the massive demand spike at the lockdown’s end. The knock-on effect was so enormous that Heathrow Airport had to cap the number of travellers entering the airport.
But the reasons run deeper than that.
The industry is old — much older than its counterparts. Nearly one third of its workers are over 55, many of whom are retiring or approaching retirement, and there aren’t enough people filling the gaps.
Take pilots. The world will need 585,000 new pilots by 2041, but fewer pilots are leaving active duty. Ex-military personnel once provided a steady source of new commercial pilots, but the increasing use of drones in modern warfare has led to a decrease in that number.
Some companies have talked about raising the retirement age of pilots but really, that’s just a bandage on an otherwise mortal wound. There are deep-seated, structural issues at play.
Traditional industry bottlenecks: length and cost
The length of training
Training timescales are one problem. High-skilled workers form the backbone of the aviation industry, and they all require extensive technical know-how.
The training is demanding. Experts said that the shortage of some 3,000 air traffic controllers was due to, among other things, the complex nature of the work, which led to people dropping out like flies.
But it also takes a long time to become qualified: up to 4 years for UK air traffic controllers. Aircraft mechanics in the US spend (usually) 18 months in training while basic pilot training in the UK takes 2 years. This leaves a major bottleneck in the supply chain of domestic labour — and that’s before these workers are vetted and have received security clearance, which can sometimes take months.
Some companies have started using flight simulation technology in basic pilot training, but it does little to speed up the process in any tangible way. Technology can only go so far; safety standards cannot be compromised.
We can glimpse part of the solution in the actions of the larger players.
More airlines are partnering with flight schools than ever before. This allows the industry to nurture a new generation of pilots directly and ensure the curriculum meets their needs.
In 2018, Delta Airlines announced its Propel program, while United Airlines partnered with several flight schools in 2020. More recently, British Airways partnered with the L3Harris Airline Academy.
Other companies, like United Airlines, have even established their own schools to align the curriculum with their real objectives.
The cost of training
It’s only through widening the potential talent pool that the supply of labour might meet the demand.
One surefire way of doing that is addressing the exorbitant cost of training.
In the USA, an FAA-certified aviation maintenance training certificate costs around $40,000 while becoming a pilot in the UK ranges between £70,000-£130,000. Compared to a normal university degree of 3 years, set at £27,750, that’s wildly expensive.
It wasn’t always the case. Up until three decades ago, UK airlines trained pilots themselves — for free. It should come to no surprise that the pool of potential candidates shrank as soon as aspiring pilots learnt they had to pay their way through training.
Several major airlines and manufacturers have, very recently, grasped the scale of the problem and announced scholarship funds for students from marginalised backgrounds.
Boeing announced a $950,000 fund to provide flight training scholarships and Delta Airlines now offer scholarships to promising candidates from poorer backgrounds.
Some governments have also done their part too. The US congress awarded $13.5 million to training schools, for example.
Modern technology, meanwhile, is helping companies reduce their workload.
How automation is helping
Thanks to automation and AI, there are fewer personnel at ticket kiosks and a decreased need for pilots to fly manually. At the same time, data management systems enable companies to organise tasks more effectively.
Take American Airlines, which used AI to reduce a gate assignment process from 4 hours to 2.5 minutes—all without the need for a team working late into the night.
Other technologies are reducing the traditional workload. 3D printing, for example, was valued at some $3 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $7.3 billion by 2028.
AI-driven predictive maintenance is being used to monitor the engines, avionics and landing gear of aircraft, reducing the workload on traditional aircraft technicians.
AI and data analytics can be used to optimise flight times while passport biometrics reduce the need for border security staff. Recent developments in autonomous aircraft may one day reduce the number of pilots we need.
However, this digital infrastructure cannot be built and maintained without a steady supply of high-skilled STEM-skill workers.
Because we don’t just need aerospace engineers to design and build planes — we need data analysts to improve maintenance schedules and flight operations. Software developers are essential for flight management systems, while cybersecurity specialists are needed to protect those systems from external threats.
And their potential supply is not enough when you consider the increased demand. At least, domestically.
Foreign labour is difficult to source
STEM workers are in short supply across the Western world, particularly when compared with countries like Japan and South Korea. But sourcing foreign labour poses its own problems.
Hiring a foreign skilled worker is harder than it’s ever been in the UK — at least in the last three decades — while the demand for engineers and IT workers has never been higher. Of course it is. According to a recent UK government study, the UK is short of 186,000 engineers.
Official policy doesn’t help the situation. Recruiting skilled foreign workers is a maze of red tape. There are sponsorship licences to consider, as well as recruitment agencies and immigration advisors.
The last government raised the salary threshold for hiring a skilled worker. The new Labour government, which may raise it again, has been granting fewer skilled worker visas.
It’s a laborious process, for both the employee and employer, sometimes taking 5 months to complete. The opportunity to work with an aviation company, therefore, must be attractive.
So, how do you attract STEM workers to the aviation industry?
Why STEM graduates aren’t interested
There are what you could call cultural reasons why data analyst graduates and software engineers aren’t joining the industry en masse, opting instead for the lifestyle afforded by Silicon Valley startups.
It clearly has little to do with wages. Aerospace engineers, for instance, make more than their peers in other industries.
But the industry’s demand for vigorous work and the resulting sleepless nights might pose a larger, more cultural problem.
Pilots, technicians and air traffic controllers must always be on-call. They work night shifts and weekends and remote work isn’t an option.
It’s notoriously hard to find a happy work/life balance in the aviation industry, and this poses a significant problem in its attempt to source STEM graduates, 63% of whom want the option of flexible working.
Indeed, one small study found that providing flexible working and a decent work/life balance is critical to retaining aviation industry talent.
But it’s only through offering a career like no other that STEM talent can be attracted.
Almost half of all STEM workers would rather learn the latest skills than make more money. This isn’t surprising, considering their tech-savvy predisposition. But the fast-paced nature of technological change is an enormous cause for concern among the modern workforce, and the opportunity to upskill makes them more likely to be employed again, in the future.
Earning six-figure salaries isn’t as enticing to the modern workforce as it once was. Purpose-driven work, career progression and upskilling are far more important.
Providing potential candidates with those opportunities might be the best tactic to hold the industry together.
