The H-1B Lottery Just Changed. Here’s What Global Mobility Teams Need to Do Now

USCIS has confirmed it: both H-1B caps for Fiscal Year 2027 are full. The 65,000 regular slots and the 20,000 slots for U.S. master’s grads are gone. And this year, there’s no second lottery. Enough petitions came in by June 30 to fill both caps in one round. This is why.

The Lottery Isn’t Random Anymore

For the first time, DHS ran a weighted lottery. Wages decide your odds now, not luck alone. The higher a role’s prevailing wage level, the more entries it gets in the pool:

• Level IV (senior): 4 entries.
• Level III (experienced): 3 entries.
• Level II (qualified): 2 entries.
• Level I (entry-level): 1 entry.

A senior engineer now has four times the shot a junior one has. That single change reshaped the entire cap season.

What the Numbers Show

Registrations dropped by more than a third. That’s not a sign of less demand for U.S. jobs, but of smarter filing. Basically, employers ran the arithmetic and subsequently skipped the bets they knew they’d lose.

Why Registrations Fell So Sharply

Three things happened at once:

1. Employers stopped gambling on long shots. Filing an entry-level candidate now buys poor odds, so many companies simply didn’t bother.
2. Fraud controls worked. Rules aimed at duplicate filings by shell companies for the same worker have cut out padding from past pools.
3. Companies rewrote job descriptions. Multinationals pushed roles up to Level II or III wages before filing, to buy better odds.

As immigration analyst Bernard Wolfsdorf put it, the new system punishes entry-level hiring. If your pipeline runs on junior graduates on OPT, the H-1B is no longer a safe bet.

The Real Problem: A Ten-Month Gap

No new cap-subject H-1B filings will open until spring 2027, for an October 2027 start. That’s roughly ten months with no path in through the standard route. Two groups are most affected:

• F-1 students on OPT or STEM OPT whose work authorisation runs out before then. They face a real deadline, not a theoretical one.
• Senior hires and specialists your business needs stateside now, with no lottery ticket to get them there.

If waiting a year for another draw isn’t an option, you have two alternatives.

Two Solutions

Plan A: Skip the Cap Entirely

A few visa routes don’t touch the lottery at all:

• L-1 intracompany transfer. Send the employee to a foreign office for one year in an executive, managerial, or specialised role. After that year, they can transfer back to the U.S., no lottery required.
• O-1 extraordinary ability visa. Open year-round, and more attainable than people assume, especially for engineers, researchers, and founders with published work or strong track records.
• Treaty visas by nationality. Check your employee’s passport:
  • TN for Canadian and Mexican citizens under USMCA
  • E-3 for Australians (20,000 slots a year, rarely full)
  • H-1B1 for Chilean and Singaporean citizens
• Cap-exempt H-1B sponsors. Universities, affiliated nonprofits, and government research bodies can file at any time of year, with no cap.

Plan B: Build a Bridge Abroad

If none of those fit, don’t let the talent go. Move them.

• Canada. The Global Skills Strategy can turn around a work permit in about two weeks. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal put your team in the same time zones as the U.S., and after a year there, an L-1 transfer back becomes possible.
• The UK and Europe. Expansion Worker and Skilled Worker visas give you a foothold for tech and finance hires who need somewhere to land now.
• Employer of Record services. No foreign entity? An EOR can employ someone compliantly in over 100 countries, handling payroll and tax so you don’t have to stand up a subsidiary for one person.
  

Your Four-Step Checklist

Map every OPT deadline. Know exactly when each unselected employee’s work authorisation runs out. That date drives everything else.

Push wage levels up for next year. Review job descriptions and pay now. Moving a role from Level I to Level II or III meaningfully improves next year’s odds.

Screen for O-1 and treaty eligibility. Check senior staff against O-1 criteria and confirm nationality-based options like TN or E-3.

Set up a nearshoring route. Line up a Canadian, UK, or EOR pathway before you need it, not after someone’s status runs out.

Prepare to Adjust Your Strategy

The random H-1B lottery is gone. Wages decide odds now, and entry-level hiring took the biggest hit. Companies that adjust their compensation strategy, diversify their visa options, and build cross-border bridges will keep their talent moving. Those that wait for next spring’s draw will lose people they can’t afford to lose.

Alice Garnett

Alice Garnett

Alice is a London-based journalist, podcast producer, host, and marketer with 5+ years of experience working for cutting edge tech startups that strive to harness the power of technology for good.

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